Online Trade Q1 2026: Stable Growth Despite Times of Crisis
Abstract
Despite the Iran war, rising energy prices, and growing future anxieties, German online trade showed stable growth of 3.6 percent to around 20.4 billion euros in the first quarter of 2026. This is according to the bevh consumer survey. While groceries, drugstores, and online pharmacies grew particularly strongly, the bevh warns of a VAT increase that could jeopardize this fragile growth. Furthermore, Asian platforms like Temu, Shein, and AliExpress are growing four times faster than the overall German market.
Important Facts on German Online Trade Q1 2026
- Total revenue: approx. 20.4 billion euros (+3.6% compared to the previous year’s quarter).
- Growth leaders: Groceries at +12.3% and Drugstore & Cosmetics at +10.1%.
- Healthcare sector: Online pharmacies grew by 9.8% (the strongest increase since the introduction of e-prescriptions).
- Channel check: Online marketplaces are the strongest channel at +5.2%; pure players stagnate at +0.6%.
- Asian competition: Temu, Shein, and AliExpress achieved +12.9% growth.
- Asian market share: Increase to 4.9% with a quarterly turnover of 990 million euros.
- Political risk: The bevh warns that a VAT increase massively threatens growth.
Growth by Category: Who’s Growing, Who’s Stagnating
| Category | Growth Q1 2026 | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Groceries | +12.3 % | 🔺 Strongest growth driver |
| Drugstore & Cosmetics | +10.1 % | 🔺 Strong growth |
| Online Pharmacies | +9.8 % | 🔺 Highest increase since e-prescription |
| Hobby & Leisure | +6.2 % | → Above average |
| DIY & Flowers | +5.0 % | → Above average |
| Online Marketplaces | +5.2 % | → Strongest channel |
| Clothing / Shoes | +3.6 % / +3.7 % | → Stable |
| Pure Players | +0.6 % | 🔻 Significantly weaker |
| Asian Platforms | +12.9 % | 🔴 4x faster than market |
Table: bevh consumer survey Q1 2026, own presentation E-Commerce Institute Cologne
Online Trade Holds Its Ground – For Now
Iran war, exploding energy prices, and a pessimistic consumer mood: the first quarter of 2026 demanded a lot from German online trade. Nevertheless, the bevh figures show structural resilience. Particularly striking is the shift toward everyday goods like food and medicine. Online pharmacies are developing into the digital infrastructure of a modern healthcare system.
The Asian Challenge: Temu, Shein, and AliExpress
Temu, Shein, and AliExpress are consistently expanding their position. With an increase of 12.9%, they are growing four times faster than the overall market. For German retailers, this means ongoing price pressure and a shift toward more sustainable market penetration by Asian providers.
“The real endurance test will come if VAT is actually raised. The currently stable but cautious growth is in extreme danger given the plans under discussion.”
— Christoph Wenk-Fischer, CEO of bevh, April 2026
Scientific Context
Research by Julian Thiers and the team led by Prof. Dr. Richard C. Geibel at the E-Commerce Institute Cologne assesses the figures as evidence of structural resilience. The integration of online shopping into everyday supply offers opportunities but requires a stable political framework without tax increases.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Answer: Despite crises such as the Iran war, the market grew by 3.6% to 20.4 billion euros. Everyday goods like groceries (+12.3%) were the main drivers.
Answer: According to bevh CEO Christoph Wenk-Fischer, an increase would jeopardize the fragile growth in e-commerce and represent an enormous endurance test.
Answer: Asian platforms grew by 12.9% in Q1 2026, four times as fast as the overall German market, and now hold a market share of 4.9%.
This post is based on the bevh consumer survey Q1 2026 and analyses by the E-Commerce Institute Cologne.