German Online Retail Defies the Crisis: Q1 2026 Grows 3.6 Per Cent – But VAT Hike Looms
Abstract: Despite the Iran war, rising energy prices and growing concerns about the future, German online retail records stable growth of 3.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, reaching around 20.4 billion euros. This emerges from the bevh consumer survey for Q1 2026. Groceries, drugstores and online pharmacies show the strongest gains. The bevh issues a clear warning, however: a VAT increase would put this fragile growth at serious risk. At the same time, Asian platforms such as Temu, Shein and AliExpress are growing four times faster than the overall German market. The E-Commerce Institute Cologne provides an academic assessment of these developments.
Important Facts about German Online Retail Q1 2026
- Total revenue Q1 2026: approximately €20.4 billion – up 3.6 per cent year-on-year (source: bevh, April 2026).
- Strongest growth category: groceries at +12.3 per cent.
- Online pharmacies record +9.8 per cent – the strongest medicine-related growth since the introduction of the e-prescription.
- Online marketplaces grow fastest of all channels at +5.2 per cent.
- Pureplayers (online-only shops) grow only 0.6 per cent after a strong Christmas season.
- Asian platforms (Temu, Shein, AliExpress) achieve +12.9 per cent – four times the pace of the overall market.
- Asian platforms’ combined market share rises from 4.5 to 4.9 per cent, with total Q1 revenue of €990 million.
- The bevh warns: a VAT increase would place the currently stable but cautious growth in the greatest danger.
Growth by Category: Who Is Growing, Who Is Stagnating
| Category | Growth Q1 2026 | Assessment |
| Groceries | +12.3% | 🔺 Strongest growth driver |
| Drugstore & Cosmetics | +10.1% | 🔺 Strong growth |
| Online pharmacies (medicines) | +9.8% | 🔺 Highest since e-prescription |
| Hobby & leisure | +6.2% | → Above average |
| DIY & garden | +5.0% | → Above average |
| Online marketplaces (total) | +5.2% | → Strongest channel |
| Clothing | +3.6% | → Stable |
| Footwear | +3.7% | → Stable |
| Multichannel retailers | +3.9% | → Catching up |
| Pureplayers (online-only shops) | +0.6% | 🔻 Significantly weaker |
| (Audio-)books & e-books | +0.2% | 🔻 Stagnation |
| Asian platforms (Temu, Shein, AliExpress) | +12.9% | 🔴 4x faster than total market |
Table: bevh consumer survey Q1 2026, own analysis E-Commerce Institute Cologne
Online Retail Holds Firm – For Now
The Iran war, soaring energy prices and an increasingly pessimistic consumer mood: the first quarter of 2026 has put significant pressure on German online retail. Yet the figures from the bevh – the German E-Commerce and Distance Selling Trade Association – send a clear signal: online retail has proved resilient so far. Spending growth remains stable and the long-term recovery trend continues.
Particularly striking is the shift towards everyday essentials. Groceries, drugstores and medicines show the highest growth rates – a sign that the purchase of non-deferrable goods is continuing to migrate structurally to the online channel. Online pharmacies benefit additionally from the ongoing growth of the e-prescription and are developing, according to bevh, into the digital infrastructure of a modern healthcare system.
Unusually early this year, the leisure season is also making itself felt: hobby and DIY products are recording strong gains already in the first quarter – an indication of consumers bringing forward purchasing decisions in an uncertain economic environment.
The Asian Challenge: Temu, Shein and AliExpress Grow Four Times Faster
The most significant structural shift in German online retail becomes visible when looking at the Asian platforms. Temu, Shein and AliExpress together achieve revenue growth of 12.9 per cent in Q1 2026 – markedly less than a year earlier (+33.9 per cent), but still four times the pace of the overall market.
With combined quarterly revenue of €990 million and a market share of 4.9 per cent, the three platforms are consistently expanding their position in the German market. For domestic retailers, the message is clear: price pressure from Asia is not easing – it is simply shifting from exponential growth to more sustained market penetration.
Expert Quotes
The crisis-driven decline in consumer confidence has not yet dragged online retail down. However, the federal government is capable of doing so. The real stress test will come if VAT is actually raised. Exploding energy prices, aggressive and often unfair competitors from third countries, and dependence on US tech companies are already strangling the industry. The currently stable but cautious growth is in the greatest danger if the VAT increase plans being discussed in government circles go ahead.
— Christoph Wenk-Fischer, CEO of bevh, April 2026
Mail-order pharmacies are becoming the infrastructure of a digital healthcare system, with their own health services and new pathways for more efficient medical care. This places them in a uniquely advantageous growth position within online retail.
— Christoph Wenk-Fischer, CEO of bevh, April 2026
Academic Context
Research by Julian Thiers and the team led by Prof. Dr. Richard C. Geibel at the E-Commerce Institute Cologneinterprets the Q1 2026 figures as evidence of the structural resilience of German online retail – while at the same time identifying two clear risk factors that overshadow the stable growth: the potential VAT increase and the ongoing market share gains of Asian platforms.
The shift in growth towards groceries, drugstores and healthcare shows that online shopping is becoming ever more deeply integrated into everyday supply in Germany. This opens structural opportunities for retail businesses – but only if the political framework remains stable. Less bureaucracy and a commitment to not raising taxes would, in the bevh’s view, be the more sensible alternative – as a signal of responsibility and state modernisation.